Jan 29, 2005

Well, This All Sounds Very Promising


Washington hopes the ballot will help transform Iraq from dictatorship to democracy but it risks worsening the insurgency by further alienating Iraq's 20 percent-minority Sunni Arabs, who formed the backbone of Saddam's ruling class.

Several leading Sunni parties are boycotting the polls, saying the insurgency raging strongest in the Sunni heartlands and the presence of more than 150,000 U.S.-led troops will make it impossible to hold a fair vote.

The country's majority Shi'ites, long oppressed under Saddam, are expected to cement their newfound dominance. An alliance formed under the guidance of the top Shi'ite cleric, Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, is almost certain to win the most votes.

Even if an alliance of secular Shi'ites led by interim Prime Minister Iyad Allawi doesn't do well, he is seen as a strong consensus candidate to possibly stay on in office.

But under-representation of Sunnis could undermine the credibility of a new 275-seat national assembly and increase the risk of sectarian conflict.

The campaign unfolded in a climate of such intimidation that most candidates kept their names secret and even the locations of polling places were kept under wraps to the last moment.

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